While a final decision to run is a couple of weeks off, Pittsburgh councilman Patrick Dowd says he's very serious about taking on Mayor Luke Ravenstahl in next May's Democratic primary.  Now it's easy to dismiss Dowd as just another good-looking intellectual whose "good government" credentials far outweigh his political skills, but Dowd seems to pull off political surprises when most people count him out.

         Dowd is not an indigenous 'Burgher, coming to Pittsburgh from St. Louis to do graduate work at the University of Pittsburgh in 1991.  Eighteen years later, he and his wife have five kids -- in the city public school system -- and Dowd has a Ph.D. in History, making him the most degree'd member of Pittsburgh City Council. 

         In 2003, Dowd surprised the political establishment by defeating the incumbent President of the Pittsburgh School Board, Darlene Harris, in both the Democratic and Republican primaries.  Four years later, in 2007, Dowd defeated another incumbent, city Councilman Len Bodack Jr.  In both cases, Dowd focused on neighborhood field organizing and door-to-door campaigning.

         The problem for him in 2009 is that Ravenstahl is a much better known incumbent -- with far more financial resources -- than Dowd's two previous opponents.  Cash is usually king in a high-profile mayor's race, and Ravenstahl has it and Dowd does not.  Still, given his track record, I am not prepared to say Dowd has no chance at all -- maybe a one in ten chance.   A lot depends on who else surfaces to run against Ravenstahl -- already City Council President Doug Shields is tapdancing around the question and attorney Carmen Robinson says she's in the race, too.

         So what do you think?  Is Luke Ravenstahl vulnerable to Patrick Dowd, or anyone else?  Chime in.