Weather Blog

In case you haven’t noticed the rain has arrived; a little early, but none the less it is here and from the looks of things it plans on staying awhile. 

 

Ark building classes will commence in the engineering department as soon as we can set up the saws and figures out what a cubit is.

    

All joking aside we are in for a wet week. 

 

First things first, we are the recipients of the moisture from the remnants of “Olaf”.  Olaf, or what is left of it will move across the Baja over the next 24 hours. 

 

The second item is a broad upper level trough which will continue to bring moisture and disturbances across north Texas for the next few days. 

 

Number three is the old front which has turned into a warm front just north of the Texas coast and will begin moving north shortly.  Dew points south of the front are in the 70’s which translates into juicy air. 

 

As this front moves toward us our chances for any severe weather will increase Monday afternoon to evening as a cold front begins pushing into our northwestern counties. 

 

As of now the front arrives between late Tuesday afternoon and early evening.  If that isn’t enough, another front comes in Thursday around midnight, according to the afternoon models.   

 

In short our rain coverage will be around 80-90% tomorrow then drop to the 30 to 50% range for the remainder of the week. 

 

Mike Burger

SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON…

A strong upper level trough is moving across the Rockies this afternoon and a surface low pressure system is strengthening in western Nebraska.  These two elements will affect our weather in the next 36 hours. 

 

The surface low in Nebraska is creating a strong pressure gradient which is increasing our winds here in North Texas.  The winds coming out of the south and southeast this afternoon are racing northward transporting moisture to the storm system in the central plains.  This will continue tonight and into tomorrow.  It will be a mild night thanks to that southerly winds with temperatures dropping into the mid to low 70s.

 

Tomorrow that surface low will push into Iowa and swing a cold front into North Texas.  Along with the cold fronts arrival, the upper level trough will move into the Central Plains.  This will create the atmospheric support for severe weather.  The strongest part of the upper level disturbance will be just to our north, but we should be close enough to the system to get a few strong to possibly severe storms here.  The timing of the front and the upper level system suggest that the higher potential for severe weather will be in northeast Texas.  Basically in areas north of I-20 and east of I-35.  That quadrant appears to be the favored area for severe weather.  The metroplex is just on the edge of the slight risk for tomorrow.  Large hail and damaging winds appear to be the greatest threat, but at the onset of the storm development there is the possibility of a few supercells that could produce a tornado.  This is more likely in Oklahoma, but could extend into Texas.  Eventually the individual storms will merge into a squall line in East Texas.

 

The cold front will pass through DFW during the evening tomorrow and end our rain chances.  Drier and cooler air will arrive Thursday night into Friday morning.  Friday will be a beautiful day with lower temps and low humidity.  Great football weather Friday Night!

 

WEEKEND = ONE NICE DAY, ONE WET DAY…

Saturday will be a pleasant day with partly cloudy skies and temperatures near 80 degrees.  Sunday will be cloudy with off and on rain.  It looks like the rain could start in the morning and then continue off and on thru the day.

 

NEXT WEEK, A WET WEEK…

There are strong indications that we will be dealing with showers and thunderstorms Monday thru Wednesday of next week as a southwest flow develops over Texas.  This would pump Pacific moisture into our state and with left over fronts stilly laying in North Texas, this is a recipe for rain. 

 

YOUR FORECAST…

Tonight… Becoming Cloudy after midnight… Low 73.

 

Tomorrow… Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.  Some storms could be severe.  High of 87.  Winds south at 20 to 30 mph.

 

Tomorrow Night… After the storms exit, it will be mostly clear and cool with a low of 57.

 

Friday… Mostly sunny and pleasant.  High of 78.

Friday night… Mostly clear.  Low of 56.

 

Saturday… Partly cloudy.  High of 79.

 

Sunday… Cloudy with off and on rain.  High of 78.  Rain chance at 60%.

 

Monday thru Wednesday… Mostly cloudy with rain chances at 40% each day and highs in the mid to low 80s.

 

Larry Mowry

A fairly quiet day with the exception of some showers/thunderstorms once again forming to our west and north.  Some of the storms in Montague and Cooke Counties may move into Wise and Denton a bit later but they are currently showing little movement.

These storms shouldn’t be severe, but lightning, strong wind and small hail are always possible.    

Tomorrow we should have a rather nice day.  I’ve left a 20% chance of morning showers in just to cover the bases but most if any rain should be in the eastern counties. 

Labor Day:  Mostly sunny and warm with the high near 93 degrees.  Wind will remain light.    

High temps during the week will range from 91 on Sunday to the mid 90s by mid week.  As of now are next chance of rain will arrive with a rather weak cool front Thursday night into Friday morning. 

Mike Burger

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS…

 

THIS EVENING… A weak warm front is draped right over North Texas.  Showers and thunderstorms are developing to the north of this front mainly along the Red River.  There are also a few storms developing near Athens and Palestine.   More storms will develop from about I-35W and eastward this evening.  Heavy rain, gusty winds and some small hail will be the primary threat.  Coverage on the rain will be about 40% to 50%. 

 

One of those storms has reached severe limits.  The storm is right along the county line of Navarro and Henderson County between Athens and Corsicana.  It is moving southeast at 15 mph.  The warning goes until 3:30pm.  Penny size hail and winds to 60 mph are possible with this storm.

 

We are not under a slight risk for severe weather and no watches are anticipated at this time, but a few more storms may get warnings issued for them as we go through the evening hours.

TONIGHT… More showers and storms will organize overnight and affect parts of the area.  The severe weather threat is low, but lots of lightning, heavy rain and some gusty winds will be possible with the storms.  Low of 72.

 

TOMORROW… Partly sunny skies with more showers and storms possible.  Rain chances tomorrow will be at 50%.  Depending on how much cloud cover we see highs will be near 90 degrees. 

 

SATURDAY… Still a few showers and storms with the best opportunity for storms coming in the morning.  Rain chances will be lower to the west and higher to the east during the day.  Highs will be once again near 90 degrees.

 

SUNDAY AND LABOR DAY…

There will still be a few lingering storms possible mainly east of Dallas on Sunday and Monday.  I don’t anticipate very many storms in the metroplex, but an isolated shower could develop.  Regardless, it won’t be a wash out and most of Sunday and Monday will be dry.  It does heat back up though with highs in the mid 90s by Monday.

 

Larry Mowry

For years the largest hailstone recorded in these United States fell near Coffeyville Kansas. For those of you interested in cowboys and the old west, Coffeyville is also the home of the infamous Dalton Brothers, a real rootin tootin bunch of bad hombres. They met there end in their hometown when they tried, unsuccessfully, to rob two banks at once. The boys were recognized as they rode into town, (you don’t have to be smart to be an outlaw) and they were shoot to pieces but back to the point of this story.

The Coffeyville hailstone weighed in at 1.67 pounds with a circumference of 17.5”. Incidentally, that hailstone fell to earth on September 3rd, 1970 and Coffeyvillians have held onto that record with a tight fist until it was pried from their hands by the folks of Aurora, Nebraska. In June of 2003 a hailstone fell in Aurora that measured 18.75” in circumference, but weighed in at a paltry 1.3 pounds, a mere “cube” compared to the Kansas ice; but these hailstones pale in comparison to the largest chunk of ice to ever fall from the sky... sort of.

Let me take you back to the late 30s or early 40s and where else but Texas, Waco to be exact because, “everything is bigger in Texas!”

It was a cold gray rainy day when a traveling salesmen checked into a Waco hotel. Some say it was the Raleigh but no one can be sure and no one can remember the gentlemen’s name... but those are unimportant facts. Anyway, the man asked the bellboy to bring him a block of ice and some ginger ale not unusual when half pints of booze were the most popular size at that time. The bellhop put the ice in the sink and was quickly tipped by the salesman. It was then the salesman noticed the gray sky turning to an inky black the wind picked up and in minutes pea sized hail began falling on the street, soon it turned to dime size then quarter size. Passersby began gathering underneath the hotel awning and started picking up some of the stones; while just above them, the salesman was becoming well oiled by demon rum. He decided to have a little fun at the yokels expense. Since the locals liked hailstones so much he would give them something to tell their children and grandchildren about.

He turned on the hot water and rounded the remaining block of ice into a sphere then without further adieu he tossed the “ice ball” out the window. Imagine the look in the eyes of the citizens in the street when this huge chunk of ice hit the ground! They quickly gathered up the stone and called the local newspaper, after all they knew a record size hailstone when they saw it.

A bit later the salesman came down to the lobby to see how his practical joke was working out... oh boy was it working, he decided he should fess up and tell the truth, besides, he wanted to see the disappointment on their faces when he told them he had just played a joke on them and it really wasn’t a BIG hailstone but no one was buying his explanation; after all who would believe someone with liquor on his breath.

Well, not only did the newspaper print the story but Ripley’s Believe It Or Not bought the story and with the advent of WW II the story was spread around the world by the servicemen from McLennan County Texas.

So if someone should ask you where the largest hailstone was found you can tell them Waco Texas, the hard part will be keeping a straight face when you tell the tale.

-- Mike Burger

At last some weather that won’t make your hair curl or your shirt stick to you like as if it were part of your skin!

 

Temperatures will remain slightly below normal the next few days with overnight lows hitting the lower 60s in the northern counties to the mid and upper 60s south and in town.  Highs will be in the upper 80s and slowly climb into the lower 90s.

By midweek a storm system now over the Pacific Northwest will slide down the eastern edge of the ridge and bring us a chance of some rain beginning Wed. night at the earliest.  As of today models are not making this look very impressive but a lot can change in the next few days so we will wait and see.  In the meantime ENJOY! 

Mike Burger

Thunderstorms have been firing along a front to the south and southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth area Sunday afternoon.  The storms are expected to continue until after sundown. 

 

All of this activity is moving to the southwest due to a high pressure ridge centered near San Angelo.  There have been numerous severe thunderstorm warnings generated Sunday afternoon but none in the immediate North Texas area.

    

Models are showing some scattered activity for Monday and Tuesday afternoon with a ridge setting right on top of North Texas that shouldn’t have much chance of causing any problems. 

 

Temperatures will begin warming up Monday with highs in the upper 90’s for the next three to four days and lows in the mid 70’s. 

 

By Thursday a cold front will approach from Oklahoma and bring another chance of rain our way.  At this time it looks like there will be a 20% chance of rain for both days.

    

Bill is just barely a hurricane, 75 mile per hour winds and will continue a northeastward track toward Newfoundland, Canada.  Currently the storm is 385 miles southwest of Cape Race.  Some Buoy reports of near 40 foot seas were recorded earlier today near Nova Scotia, Canada.

 

Mike Burger

Dry air is filtering into North Texas.  Depending on where you live in the metroplex it either feels comfortable or incredibly humid.  A look at the dew points, shows a great contrast from north to south.  The dew point in Dallas is 61 degrees, relatively comfortable.  However the dew point in Fort Worth is 70 degrees, very uncomfortable.  If you travel just to the north to the Red River dew points are in the mid 50's!  The drier air has been slow to work southward but with north winds that drier air will overtake the metroplex this afternoon and this evening. 

 

With dry air and mostly clear skies tonight temperatures will drop into the low 70's and upper 60's tonight. 

 

THIS WEEKEND...

Mostly sunny skies on Saturday and Sunday with temperatures in the mid 90's.  There could be a few isolated storms on Sunday afternoon, but rain chances will be at 20%.  And the favored area would be south and southwest of DFW. 

 

NEXT WEEK…

Relatively quiet weather for the week with mostly to partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid 90's.  There is no one feature that will trigger storms in the forecast next week.  No upper level disturbance, no strong fronts coming our way.  Instead, we will see heating of the day isolated showers and storms.  Rain coverage will be low less than 20%, but any day next week you could see a garden variety afternoon storm.

 

Larry Mowry

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was set to expire at 10 p.m. is extended until 4 a.m. with a few counties added to the watch.  Heres the list:  Denton, Collin, Rockwall, Kaufman, Hunt, Van Zandt, Rains, Cooke, Lamar, Fannin, Grayson, Lamar, Hopkins, Delta

 

The watch does not include Dallas or Tarrant County.

 

Larry Mowry

Isolated storms continue from Sherman to Bonham to Paris.  These are not severe at this time.  The cold front is now pushing into Denton and northern Collin County.  Winds will shift to the north in Tarrant County around 9pm and shortly there after in Dallas.  Temps will drop 5 to 10 degrees with the passage of the front. 

 

The best chance of storms will be basically east of US 75.  We will see a few spotty showers and possibly a storm or two in Collin and Dallas County over the next two to three hours, but the best coverage on the rain will be from Bonham to Paris to Sulphur Springs. 

 

The severe thunderstorm watch that is in effect until 10pm will likely be extending for northeast Texas.  It is unclear at this time which if any of our counties will be included in the new watch.  More than likely it would be Fannin, Hunt, Hopkins, Lamar, Rains and Delta Counties.  But that will be determined closer to 10pm.

 

Overnight… Spotty showers and maybe a thunderstorm will linger into the morning tomorrow before the dry air takes over. 

 

Tomorrow… It will become mostly sunny and pleasant with temperatures in the mid to low 90s and lower humidity.

Larry Mowry