Let's Talk Politics

You thought Arlen was the only one?

Looks like the GOP is trying to talk central Pennsylvania Congressman Chris Carney into switching parties. The second-term rep hails from a conservative-leaning district in PA and many see him as fitting the same mold as Alabama's Parker Griffith who jumped to the Republican party on Tuesday. As poll numbers for Democrats sink in the wake of the tough fight over health care reform this could be a situation worth watching. 

The end is near. It may end quietly. It may end with a bang. But 2009's great debate over health care reform is approaching its final act.

Today, the democratic senate leadership took a big step toward winning over the vote of wavering Independent Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, moving them closer to the 60 votes needed to end a republican fillibuster and pass the legislation on the senate floor. But it came at a high price: no more public option, no more medicare buy-in.

After word spread of Lieberman's softening on health care reform, President Obama went before cameras at the White House and announced he was now "cautiously optimistic that we can get this done." And maybe he can. But liberals are NOT on board.

Howard Dean - the former presidential candidate who's emerged as one of the leading voices on the left for health care reform - announced he'd rather "kill the bill" than see the senate pass it in its current form. And influential progressive blogger Markos Moulitsis echoed that. They say without greater incentive to control costs, legislation that forces Americans to purchase health care insurance is a bad deal.

This bears watching over the next few days. It would be extraordinary if the bill is killed from the left. But at this point nothing would be surprising.

Does Harry Reid have any idea what he's doing?

On Wednesday he announced a "deal" had been reached on health care reform -  a deal that congressional sources said would discard the "public option" in exchange for expansions in Medicare and Medicaid eligibility plus a new national health care plan. And now, just 24 hours later, three key senators (democrat Ben Nelson, republican Olympia Snowe and independent Joe Lieberman) say they are unlikely to vote to advance the bill. Which means it can't pass the senate!

Hello?!

What is Reid doing? He refuses to discuss the deal in detail until the Congressional Budget Office can assess its cost, yet he still brags it's a better plan than the one he first presented to the senate. And he does it without having secured the support of the lawmakers who have all the power?

I'm beginning to think nothing is going to pass the congress when it comes to health care reform. And I'm beginning to think Harry Reid's days in Washington are numbered.

A quick item that got lost in the holiday shuffle: Could Hillary Clinton replace Joe Biden on the 2012 democratic ticket? Naaaaaaaaahhhh...

President Obama's unveiling of his long awaited strategy on the way forward in Afghanistan seems to have made enemies of friends and friends of enemies.

The President's base of liberals and left-leaning voters who first flocked to the Obama candidacy largely as a result of his opposition to the war in Iraq are clearly conflicted. While still loyal to the young president, they're dissatisfied with his decision to escalate the U.S. presence in a section of the world they feel is better left alone. 30,000 new troops to the war zone - that's a major committment. And one that signals America's eight year war is not near its end.

Conservatives and right-leaning voters on the other hand seemed pleased by the president's committment, with no less than Karl Rove declaring the president "deserves to be cheered" for his long-term strategy. Others even compare his speech to ones his predecessor used to defend his own war policies.

So what does it all mean? Politico believes there won't be any real roadblocks to implementing the plan in congress. So Afghanistan is Barack Obama's war now. By the time his "surge" is fully implemented 100,000 American troops will be on the ground there - and half of those men and women will have been sent there on Obama's watch. Their fate and the war's outcome may very well decide the president's fate in 2012.

How would you like to find THAT under your tree? Well, President Obama and democratic senators wouldn't mind one bit. But the chances of getting exactly what the senate voted to begin debating this past Saturday night (in a 60-39 vote) seem pretty slim.

At issue is, as always, the vaunted Public Option - a government-run health care program that supporters promote as the only real competition for the nation's health care industry. Some key democratic senators who voted Saturday to bring the senate health care bill to the floor  - including Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln, Nebraska's Ben Nelson and Connecticut's Joe Lieberman - have made it clear they don't oppose the public option. Lieberman due to what he sees as exorbitant long-term costs, the others due to opposition back home. And since they hold the balance of power in the senate (the legislation needs 60 supporters to end a filibuster), the prospects for a public option are bleak.

So what to do? Politico says the true-believers on the left (like Vermont's Bernie Sanders) could scuttle the whole program if they refuse to compromise. Maybe. But isn't that making - as the President has said - the perfect the enemy of the good? My guess is a deal will be cut very late in the game (not before Christmas) that will eliminate the public option and the administration and the congressional leadership will declare victory.

That's not good enough for former presidential candidate and DNC Chair Dr. Howard Dean. He's a strong proponent of the public option. He's said health care reform without it is not health care reform. And now he's angry Majority Harry Reid didn't use reconciliation to pass the bill with 51 votes - going so far as to say it will cost democratic lawmakers their seats.

One last interesting read for you tonight comes from Charlie Gasparino from The Daily Beast. It's an piece on the prospects of the economy being ready to take another downturn. But my attention was grabbed by one point in particular: that the pullback from the economic crisis was fueled by our stunningly high unemployment rate! What a country.

The People's House is always a popular place to entertain and it's been nice to see the Obama's return the White House to a place of culture and artistic expression. But who's there to do business? How about George Soros and Al Gore? Yeah, they've been by. Politico has the latest list of White House visitors.

The Administration has released FBI notes of an interview with then-Vice President Cheney regarding the Valarie Plame leak. Not much "there" there, other than Cheney's amusing description of Joe Wilson's fact-finding mission to Niger as "amateur hour at the CIA". Look for Wilson to pop up repeatedly on MSNBC in the coming days.

Another high impact piece by Charles Krauthammer today (is there any other kind?) The coverage of it on the cable nets has seemed to focus on his calling out the President for blaming Bush for all his problems. But that's superficial. The colum is really about pushing the President toward making a greater committment to Afghanistan. Considering the importance of the choice it's too bad those with forums choose to find and dwell on a partisan angle.

Peggy Noonan says no one in Washington is up to the challenge of leading us through these difficult times.

And San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom is out of the running for Governor of California.

$1,055,000,000,000.00

That's a lot of zeroes. And that's how much the Congressional Budget Office says the health care bill now up for consideration by the House of Representatives will cost. And that's just the early estimate.

In return, 96% of people receive health insurance. What do you think??

What a compelling apperance from President Obama before a joint session of congress last night! If you haven't seen it CSPAN has the video here.

In a speech that at times was passionate, confrontational, soothing and angry the President tried to return a sense of urgency to the debate over health care reform. There wasn't much new (I'd say his sudden openness to tort reform, for instance, will amount to very little in the end) and he may not have made the firm committment to the public option the Left would have liked. But the president may have done what he most needed to do at this stage of the game - he showed some leadership. And determination. And a willingness to join the fight. Surprisingly, that's what's been missing from this debate. Congress and the public have been slugging it out over health care but President Obama has been staying above the fray. And he'll never get anything done like that.

In fact, I'd say the Obama we saw last night was the closest he's come to being the man America saw on the campaign trail. Someone who believed we could get things done in Washington. The "Yes We Can" guy.

Does that mean health care's going to get done? I wouldn't bet on it. At least not in the way the President (and the Speaker and the Senate Majority Leader) originally envisioned it. But the President made clear last night that he's going to fight for reform and that guarantees a battle that will keep our attention throughout the Fall. It will be interesting.

As for Rep. Joe Wilson's outburst, I posted quite a bit about that on my Twitter feed (www.twitter.com/chrismayphilly). Not much more to be said. The President accepted his apology today and voters in his district seem largely supportive. But let's hope the debate can be a bit more high-minded moving forward.

Finally, while the President was a bit edgy last night and seemed too eager to point fingers at his opponents at times, I did think the last five minutes or so of his speech were amazing. I'm talking about the section where he pays tribute to Ted Kennedy. Watch him. His demeanor changes. His voice softens. The atmosphere in the room grows solemn. Setting aside politics for a moment, It's magical. Check it out and see if you don't agree. 

I almost can't wait for next Wednesday!

That's the night President Obama is going to go before a joint session of congress and (at long last) clearly spell out his vision of health care reform. It'll be nice to get some clarity from the President  - a road map of sorts that can then be up for debate.

But what a challenge for the Commander-in-Chief! Edward Luce of the Financial Times really lays out the playing field nicely.

Liberal democrats won't support a bill without the public option. Moderate democrats won't support a bill with the public option.

The one moderate republican who could potentially support a bill with the public option won't unless there are specific triggers. Liberal democrats catagorically rule out triggers.

Rahm Emmanuel seems to be turning his back on the liberals - but they have enough votes to sink any compromise legislation.

And to top it all off health care isn't a top priority for the American public.

I'll be watching, Mr. President. And wondering why anybody would want that job.