Al Sunshine's 4 Your Money

Despite all the Challenges to the Recovery, Investors are still keeping the Dow near Record Highs for the year.

But the latest data is still showing some old problems are getting worse. And for now it's hurting Main Street a lot worse than Wall Street.

As Investors close out November trading, don't forget it'll be a short week because of the Thanksgiving Holiday.

Despite the November Rally fizzling out this week, we still can't forget just a few trading days ago the Dow set new Record-Highs for the year.

We can expect Wall Street to remain comfortable over the 10,000 mark as the latest General Economic Indicators show continued Short-Term Growth.

The Dollar's picking up some strength in foreign markets and that's depressing commodity prices for Gold and Wholesale Oil.

And that could mean we'll see Stabilizing or even Cheaper Prices at local gas pumps over the holidays.

But the biggest "Negative" for the Economy as we approach the Thanksgiving Break remains Growing Unemployment.

Forecasts for a slow retail holiday shopping season may not help hiring unless businesses see enough improvments in Consumer Spending to push them into adding more employees.

The U-S Dept. of Labor just reported 28 states including Florida reported Worsening Unemployment last month.

National Unemployment is now running 10.2%.

Here in Florida, our Unemployment rate was up slightly at 11.2%. That's close to Septembers' level which could mean the job market has Bottomed-Out statewide.

But it still remains at its' highest level since 1975.

Miami-Dade's jobless rate keeps getting worse and is now approaching 12%. That's up by about .4% since September based on more job losses in the Construction Industry and Trades.

But Broward is showing some improvment with October Unemployment falling slightly to 9.7%.

Retail Earnings are still showing mixed results as Consumer Spending remains flat.

Still, 4th Quarter Earnings' Forecasts are improving for some retailors.

When trading closed Friday, the Dow dropped about 14 points, leaving the Main Industrial Averages at 10,318.

While Friday was an off-day, the Dow still gained 48 points for a week that saw new 2009 Record Highs over the 10,400 mark.

Even though next week will see the Stock Market closed for Thanksgiving, we'll still be getting some Major Reports including the latest Consumer Confidence numbers, Residential Real Estate trends and Corporate Profitablity.

If those reports show more weakness in the recovery, we can expect *Few* Solid Gains out of Wall Street as we aproach the end of November Trading.

A 48 Point Gain for the week doesn't sound like much to cheer about.

But considering all the latest concerns about our Recovery Stalling, it may be a "Thanksgiving Blessing" that Wall Street's still showing any growth at all and not deeper losses.

When trading closes out the week Friday, Wall Street could be hit by growing concerns the recovery is still in just its' begining stages and it may take much longer than originally thought before we see any major improvements.

That's why the Dow suffered double-digit losses in Thursday trading.

On the Upside, the latest Economic Indicators from a private Group known as the Conferance Board, just showed for the 7th straight month. the U-S Economy showed Improvements in at least 6 out of 10 Major Indexs.

But the rate of last months' improvments slowed a bit from September.

And the Mortgage Bankers' Association just reported back in September, more than 14% of U-S Homeowners were either late with their mortgage payments or in some form of foreclosure filing.

The group warns continuing Loan Defaults and Foreclosures could slow any hopes of a more rapid housing recovery.

And the latest Unemployment numbers shows layoffs worsening with 505,000 new Benefits' Claims.

While that's the lowest number since January, Overall Unemployment remains at a 26-Year high with 5.6 million people needing extended benefits.

And our growing Unemployment Problem is now prompting an International Economics' Think Tank to forecast that the U-S Recovery will remain weak for the immediate future.

And that's why when trading closed Thursday, the Dow dropped about 94 points with the Main Averages dropping to 10,332.

November Trading still looks like it's heading towards being a winning month with probable more slow improvments in our Investment and Retirement Accounts.

As we aproach the Final Week of November trading and the Thanksgiving Holiday, it looks like investors are still very nervous about the economy and the contiuning short-term weakness of our recovery.

That could mean more possible losses as Wall Street closes out the week.

Wall Street still remains on track to make Mid-November a Solid Winner with the Dow probably staying well over the 10,000 mark thru the end of the Month.

But Investors may still be getting too many mixed messages to feel like buying into another Triple-Digit Rally anytime soon.

Even President Barrack Obama is now openly discussing how the deepening Federal Deficite, Low Interest rates and a Weak Dollar could team up to possibly cause a so-called Double-Dipper Recession Next Year.

But the President seems convinced it won't happen and he's relunctant to expand the Federal Deficit any further thru any addtional "Economic Stimulus Spending".

Why the sudden concern about another possible economic downturn?

Growing Unemployment is keeping consumers away from the check-out counters.

Personal Spending remains flat as families struggle to stay in their homes.

Residential Construction fell last month for the first time since the summer.

New Mortage applications also dropped this week despite Record Low Interest rates and expanded tax credits for homebuyers.

While inflation is still not a major problem, consumer prices just climbed by about .3% because of October's rising wholesale oil prices and its' effect on local gas pumps.

But overall consumer prices are still lower than last year.

When Wall Street closed it's mid week trading Wednesday, the Dow dropped about 11 points.

And that reversed the steady rally we've been seeing all month while leaving the Main Industrial Averages down to 10,426. And despite all the Mixed-Signals, the Diow as still able to sustain some strength over the 10,400 Mark. 

There's still a lot of pent-up demand to put more money into the markets.

Gold is again seeing new record highs.

That's a popular option for investors who may also be worried about a possible Double-Dipper Recession next year after seeing the current mixed signals on the direction of the Economy.

Thursday Trading could be a good indicator which way Investors are heading before the end of the month:

Plenty of New Signs the Recovery remains weak, but with still enough Overall Market Strength to keep the Dow well over the 10,000 mark.   

Will we see another "Rebalancing Sell-Off"?

Stay Tuned.

 

 

Mid-November Trading continues to set New Record Highs for 2009 as Wall Street continues the Slow Growth we've seen since earlier this summer.

But it looks like Investors may be ready to slow the current rally to double check the current status of the U-S Economy. They seem nervous to put much more money into Wall Street.

The Federal Reserve Board reports overall U-S industrial production grew by just 0.1% last month. That's the lowest gain over the last 3 months.

It's being seen as a sign our Overall Economic Recovery may still be in it's Early Stages and may remain fragile for a while.

That's not a good sign for Investors who are hoping for more Solid Signs of an improving Economy. 

While inflation is not considered a major problem as Interest Rates remain at Record-Lows, overall consumer prices are rising by about .3 Percent according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Why the sudden hike?

Blame October's rising fuel prices that pushed retail gas prices up by about 1.9%.

And that's leading to rising Food Prices with Vegetables shooting up about 24% and Fresh Fruit up about 7%.

Looking for bargains?

Baked Goods are down about .5 Percent Beef's Down 2.7 Percent and Pork's down 1Percent, at least in Supermarkets if not Washington!

Shopping for Turkey this Thanksgiving?

It's up about 3% over last month.

But our overall Thanksgiving Dinner Prices are still lower than last year.

Expect to see Turkey selling for as low as about .49 cents a pound or even cheaper as Supermarkets cut Thanksgiving Prices to bring back customers.

The latest Corporate Earnings show continued solid gains for Deep Discounters like Target.

But with Home Sales still depressed, Home Improvment stores like Home Depot and Lowes are reporting deepening 3rd quarter losses.  Home Depot just upgraded its' latest 4th Quarter forecasts on recent signs of an improving economy.

And that's why when trading ended Tuesday, investors were still geting too many mixed signals about our recovery to fuel another big jump in the Dow.

It ended with Moderate Gains of about 30 points which left the Main Industrial Averages at the 10,437 level.

Despite lingering concerns about the strength of the recovery, Investors seem comfortable with the Dow's continued slow growth over the 10,000 level.

And for now, we can expect more short-term growth as we approach the end of November.

On the Upside, Wall Street seems comfortable with the 10,400 mark for now and we could see 10,500 by the end of the week.

But it still wouldn't be much of a surprise to see a slight Pull-Back before the end of the month with so many mixed signals.

 

 

 

Wall Street opened this week's trading with new record highs shattering the 10,400 mark by mid-day Monday.

So when Tuesday trading opens, could investors be ready to sink even more money into the markets?

Investors must have liked the latest news about Octobers' improving retail sales.

But much of that improvement came from auto sales, which got a boost from the Cash for Clunkers program.

And if you take that away, the rest of the retail industry saw just minimal growth which was the worst since last Summer at the probably height of the recession.

And while GM just reported Post-Bankruptcy losses of $1.2 Billion Dollars, it's still lot better than expected.

Business is improving enough for GM, that starting next month, it plans to start paying back the first $1.2 Billion Dollars of it's Federal Bail Out.

Also boosting investors' last half of November confidence?

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke just forecast continued slow growth for the U-S Economy thru the first half of 2010. Bernanke also expects low interest rates to remain a key part of the Fed's Recovery plan.

That helped Monday's Close boost Wall Street to new yearly highs with the Dow gaining 137 Points, to leave the Main Industrial Averages at 10,407.

Coukd 10,500 come before the end of the Week?

Still, Investors are hedging their bets.

The Commodities' Markets are also seeing solid gains. Gold is still setting new record Highs almost daily.

For now, November remains on-track to leave our Investments and Retirement Accounts a lot better looking than October.

But the tough question for the next few days remains: How long can this Latest Growth Last and is Wall Street just setting itself up for another "Reblancing"  Sell-Off? 

When Wall Street opens the weeks' trading Monday, it'll follow last weeks' steady gains.

Despite continuing bad news about growing unemplopyment, investors are still slowly but surely pushing Wall Street to new gains.

And the evidence is growing that this may be a painfully slow.."Consumerless Recovery".

The latest surveys show for the 2nd month in a row, consumer sentiment is falling.

Since September, it's dropped about 7 points. And that could mean this holiday shopping season, consumers may not be willing to go back to spending.

But the latest corporate earnings are still coming back better than expected for some big names like Walmart, Disney and J-C Penney which are all either reporting or forecasting better than expected performance for the end of the year.

Concerns about reduced demand and increased supplies are hitting the price of wholesale oil is now at about $76. That's well below $80 a barrel we saw over the past few weeks.

And that could mean dropping prices at local gas pumps as we aproach Thanksgiving.

Despite all the mixed signals, investors were still in enough of a good mood to pump money into the markets. And that left the Dow up 73 points with the main industrial averages at 10,270. And that's meant anther good weeks of more gains for our Investments and 401 Retirement Accounts.

Wall Street is still seeing pretty consistent, slow growth as we aproach Thanksgiving.

But last week it also saw some moderate losses before ending the week on the upside.

So far, November looks like it's on-track to continue the trend of contiuning growth.

But it may still have enough bumps in the road to keep us guessing "What's Next"?

I'll ask again: Is an 11,000 Dow possible before the end of the year?

Is it a just quick Re-Balancing or a sign of Continuing weakness and future Volatility on "The Street"? 

Novembers' rally on Wall Street slammed into reverse Thursday on growing concerns about the country's growing Unemployment problem and the possibility of a so-called Consumerless Recovery.

When Wall Street closes out the weeks' trading, it could remain flat with little positive developments showing the Recovery building much more strength.

Thursday, President Barrack Obama pledged a new, National Employment Summit in Washington.

It's set for next month and it's aimed at getting people back to work. The President wants to bring together Lawmakers, Business Leaders and Labor Unions to figure out how to get U-S Companies hiring again.  

But despite the President's plan, the Stock Market still erased some of its' earlier gains from the almost week-long rally.

Why the sell-off?

The latest Unemployment Numbers show another 502,000 people filed for new jobless claims.

That's still down about 12,000 from the previous week.

But there are still 5.6 million people on needing long term benefits and that's down by about 139-thousand former workers.

It looks like the the pace of new layoffs is slowing down here and across the country.

And there are new signs Foreclosures may be slowing too.

October filings are down about 3% from September.

And there's even better news around South Florida.

Our foreclosures are now down by about 6% since September.

And for the first time this year, Floridas' now showing lower numbers than 2008.

With so many mixed signals about where the Econmy's heading, investors may still be very cautious to put much more money into Wall Street.

That's why when trading closed Thursday, the Dow dropped about 94 points, leaving the Main Industial averages at 10,197.

Wall Street could still end the week's trading with moderate gains if we don't see a major sell-off Friday.

But it's getting clearer that short-term growth may continue, but very slowly.

And we may still see a lot more ups and downs on Wall Street for the rest of Novembers' trading.

It's almost like watching Grass Grow, but the signs are all adding up that Wall Street's November Rally may be slowing down.

When trading opens Thursday, we could expect to see more slow growth. But we may also see more volatility as investors decide how much more money they want to keep pouring into the stock market. Investors could be combing thru Portfolios now looking for potential losers before jumping in even deeper. 

On the upside, the latest Third-Quarter Retail Earnings are showing some better than expected results.

Retail giant Macy's posted a $35 million dollar loss. But that's *Not* as bad as expected and beats last falls' $44 milion dollar losses.

Walmart's latest earnings are also forecast to come in better than expected.

And that's prompting some analysts to believe the Retail Sector is seeing some solid growth that could be the best since the recession started in December 2007.

Federal Reserve Board members are publically saying they expect low interest rates to remain through possibly the first half of next year.

But on the Downside, they're also now forecasting growing unemployment thru the first half of 2010.

And that's why when Wall Street closed Wednesday, the Dow picked up 44 points leaving the Main Industrial Averages at another closing high for the year of 10,291. It's more slow growth. But positive gains for the Dow have been seen for 6 straight days now and Investors seem to be gaining confidence in a market that's well over the 10,000 mark.       

Despite growing signs of a possible slow down, Wall Street should still see more short-term growth.

Low interest rates are encouraging investors to put more money into the markets. And there are new signs investors are expecting more profits out of the stock market as we approach the end of the week.

If the current Market Trends continue, Mid-Month Trading could leave Wall Street with more solid gains as we approach the final weeks before the Thanksgiving Break.

And our 401k and other Investment Accounts are still seeing positive gains which should make them all look a lot better by the end of the year. 

When Wall Street opens Midweek trading Wednesday, the Dow will be at record high levels for the year despite Tuesdays' sluggish gains.

While some critics say Current Economic Data doesn't really support all the growth, it looks like some investors still want to put more money into the markets after expecting even more growth.

Tuesday trading slowed a bit after Mondays' Rally which pushed the Dow well over the 10,200 Mark.

The still-weak Dollar and low interest rates are teaming up to give Investors plenty of "cheap money" to keep pouring into the markets.

But as the dollar has weakend, it continues to help boost trading in the commodity markets.

Gold remains at near-record highs.

Wholesale oil is down slightly under $79 a barrel after Tropical Storm Ida left the Gulf's Oil Rigs Unharmed.

And there are new reports that we could now be seeing a Glut of oil in the market. And that could mean Pump Prices could stabilize or even start dropping.

Closer to South Florida, Low Interest Rates are continuing to help our Local Real Estate Markets. And with the Federal reserve cvoting to leave those rates at record lows, they are expected to stay that way possibly thriough the first quarter of 2010.

Third Quarter Single Family Home Sales around Miami jumped 44%. But selling prices are still down about 33% since last Fall.

Even the local Condo Market is starting to see growth again. But Condo prices are still lagging and they're expected to remain depressed for quite a while. 

Nationallly, Home Prices are also still dropping. And that leads  some analysts to wonder how much further they could fall or if we've even reached the bottom yet?

When Wall Street closed Tuesday, the Dow was still able to pick up 20 points, leaving the Main Industrial Averages at 10,246.

So far, this week's on track to see solid improvements over earlier this month.

But it may still be a while before anyone knows how much more short-term growth Wal Street can sustain.

And few would be surprised if we didn't see more "Rebalancing" and Continued Volatility in the coming weeks.

But for now, Wall Street's still growing and so are our 401K Accounts and other Investments.

Think we could see the 11,000 Mark before the end of the year or will we fall back into the 9800's?

Wall Street showed continued growth Friday despite the latest bad news about growing unemployment.

So when investors open their Mid-Month trading Monday, we can expect they may be Cautious about putting much more money into Wall Street.

But they may be starting to feel a little bit more comfortable with the Dow over 10,000 mark for the near future.

Last weeks' trading was dominated with more Mixed Signals about our Recovery.

Some major corporate earnings were better than expected and industrial productivity improved to some of it's best levels in several years.

Low interest rates will remain with us for a while according to the latest move by the Federal Reserve.

And that should continue to help boost the Residential Real Estate markets, which have benefited from record low mortgage rates.

The Real Estate markets will also be getting a boost from Fridays' extension of tax credits for home buyers.

Unemployment beneftis were also extended at least another 14 weeks.

And the Prsident alos enacted new laws granting Tax Refunds to struggling businesses.

In all, it's another $24-Billion Dollar shot on the arm for the Economy.

 

But the major cloud over wall street remains Unemployment which last week just shot up to 10.2%. That's the worst level since 1983...with 190,000 more jobs lost last month. Since the recession officially began the ned of 2007, 8.2 Million jobs were lost. And as we've reported for a while, new hiring here and across the country is flat.

And that's why when the Markets closed Friday, the Dow was still able to gain about 17 points which left the Main Industrial Averages at about 10,023.

Mid-November Trading could bring more of the slow, steady Growth we've been seeing since Late Summer.

But with all the questions about Unemployment and Soft Consumer Spending, don't be surprised if we also see more volatlity.

And that could still push the Dow back under the 10,000 mark at any time.

So far, November Trading hasn't been too bad at all for our Investment and Retirement Accounts.

An hopefully, Unemployment won't get much worse.