First Warning Weather Blog

 

Winter storm warnings are now in effect statewide thorugh Wednesday at 7 p.m. (early Thursday morning for the lower Eastern Shore) and the next storm is making its way into Maryland as I write this. This is going to be a very explosive storm for us, with possibly even higher winds than last time.

Two low pressure systems are moving our way. One low over the Midwest is producing widespread snow and the second one is across the Tennessee Valley with a mix of rain and snow. Both these storms will continue heading eastward as they intensify. Then, they will bomb out as they merge just off the Mid-Atlantic coast. That's why we are going to experience another major storm with another round of major problems.

It will start off slowly, but any additional snow is only going to cause more problems from the very beginning since so many of the roads are already a mess. As we move through the evening, the snow will start to pick up. Expect rounds of heavy snow overnight and through the day tomorrow. During that time, the winds will also start to pick up. Visibility will be below 1/2 mile at times both from the heavy snow and then eventual blowing/drifting snow.

Overall, we expect generally 12-18" of snow for most of the metro area and extending back past Hagerstown. There is the potential for locally 20"+ in extreme northeast Maryland - particularly, Cecil and Harford Counties. As for winds, gusts around 50 mph are possible along the coast, 35-45 mph along the Bay and surrounding counties, and 25-35 mph farther west. We will be borderline blizzard again with this storm. You may be well schooled in the blizzard definition right now since we have had an incredible 2 rounds of blizzard warnings already this year, but just in case you want to be reminded...a blizzard means 3 or more hours with winds sustained or frequently gusting to 35 mph or more, with snow and visibility below 1/4 mile also for 3 hours or more. If you want to see this information in a graphic, we have a link at the top of the wjz.com home page. Also, we have them included in our webcast.

This storm will be gone Thursday. There is another storm out there for the weekend, but that one will stay south of the Mid-Atlantic - giving us at least 4 days of dry weather. Sunshine will help melting on Thursday and Friday, and then some clouds will mix in over the weekend with that southern storm. However, even though there will be melting with the sunshine, the cold air is really going to keep this process moving slowly. Highs are not getting out of the 30s the rest of the week with lows dropping into the teens overnight.

Stay safe out there and try to help your neighbors who may need an extra hand right now. And keep it tuned to WJZ and WJZ.com...we will be taking you through this storm like the last one.

 

Yes, more snow is heading our way - and soon!

I know that everyone wants to know what is going on with the next storm. We will get to that in just a moment. But before we do, take advantage of the break in the weather today. Although temperatures are barely going above freezing this afternoon, sunshine is helping to melt some (little, but at least some) of the snow away. Shovel out and treat as much of your property as you can, because we have another round of snow coming out way - and it's coming in tomorrow.

Now, to that storm. The National Weather Service has already posted a winter storm watch for a lot of Maryland. It does not include extreme southern Maryland and southern parts of the Eastern Shore - at least now. There is a good chance that this will be upgraded to a winter storm warning later this evening or tonight.

This storm will arrive late tomorrow afternoon or evening, and continue through Wednesday. Not only is there the potential for heavy snow once again, but high winds and very low visibility. No, we are not making this up - we really could see another significant snow once again. Although we do not think that it will be to the level of this weekend, that is not saying much because this weekend's storm will likely go down as one of the top snowstorms ever in Baltimore. (The only reason we cannot confirm that is because we are still waiting on the official reading to be confirmed by the National Weather Service. We will pass that along as soon as we get it.)

We are going to attach our snowfall accumulation to the home page of wjz.com if you want to check it out. Also, we will be updating our webcasts, and will have that snowfall map in it as soon as we can. What we are thinking is that a lot of people will get at least a foot of snow out of this. There is going to be an area from Allegany County, down into Frederick and maybe Montgomery County, cutting through AA County over the Bay into Kent County and then Delaware that will have 10/12" to 18". That does include Baltimore City and County, and the immediate metro area.

Farther south, those amounts will drop off because the mixing line is going to come farther north with this storm than the last one. A 6-12" area will include PG, part of Calvert, over through Talbot and cutting up through Queen Anne's County. There could be some sleeting mixing in here. South of that, there will likely be a 3-6" area where we will see more sleet. And then Wicomico, Worchester and Somerset Counties will see a mix of everything - with a longer period of rain than the weekend storm.

This storm will wind down for us Wednesday night, yanking down another bitterly cold air mass. Sunshine will return for Thursday and most of Friday to help with some melting, but temperatures are still not really going to help us out too much. They will only top out in the 30s and then head back down into the teens.

It's pretty safe to say that we are going to shatter our all time seasonal snowfall record of 62.5". We are already at 60.4" (unofficially...again, still waiting for the official final numbers from the National Weather Service) going into this next storm.

Try to stay safe out there and watch out for your neighbors or those that may need your help right now. And stay tuned to WJZ and WJZ.com, we will continue to update all of our products frequently as long as these storms continue.

 

We get to catch our breath in the weather department for a few days before the next winter storm affects the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.

Today, tonight and tomorrow will be clear, breezy and cold. Temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal and AccuWeather RealFeels will be in the teens and single digits.

Clouds will increase on Tuesday and end up cloudy. Snow may start late in the day, but timing these things 60 hours in advance is no exact science. What happens is that a primary area of low pressuretracks up the Ohio River valley... and a secondary low will develop somewhere near the Carolina coastline late Tuesday. This low will strengthen and take over as it heads northeast. This will keep the cold air locked in place and how much snow we get depends on how close the storm tracks to us. I would say that a plowable snow is likely and the potential for a significant snowfall is high.

With the blocking pattern in the north Atlantic expected to be weaker, this may allow the storm to track further north. Onthe other hand, the Canadaian shortwave that is expected to phase with the southern stream shortwave to form this system may did further south. However, there is good model agreement that something does get into the viewing area Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Clearing, breezy and cold behind the system Thursday.

 

4:15 p.m.

We are still awaiting the official total from the National Weather Service, but all signs are pointing to an all time record snowfall event. 

As of noon, BWI-Marshall registered 26.5" worth of snow.  There has definitely been accumulation since then, but nothing has been reported yet.  As soon as we hear the official numbers, we will pass them along to you. 

Elsewhere, the numbers continue to add up.  We have seen widespread totals ranging from 22-30".  Northern parts of the Eastern Shore have even registered 18-24" worth of snow.  The amounts do drop off the farther south and east you go, but there is still at or above a foot in St. Mary's and Calvert Counties and up to 6-9" reported in Wicomico and Worchester Counties. 

The snow is coming to and end quickly now, and the sunshine has even popped out from Baltimore City north and westward.  The winds will transition around to the northwest, bringing in a round of Arctic air.  Lows will drop into the teens and single digits tonight, then only recover into the 20s tomorrow afternoon.  Fortunately, there will be sunshine out to help melt SOME of the snow.  But with temperatures not going above freezing, and then dropping into the teens and single digits tomorrow night, anything not properly treated or washed away will refreeze.  That same melting/freezing cycle will continue Monday through Tuesday morning before yet another storm moves our way Tuesday night into Wednesday. 

Yes, there is the chance once again for accumulating snow Tuesday night into Wednesday.  We will keep you posted on the details as we get closer, but let's get through this one first. 

Stay tuned...

 

Since the beginning of the this storm system we’ve tried to find the right word to describe this storm. We’ve heard, everything from “wow” to “incredible” to “unbelievable”.  What is your word?

As we watch this potent storm play out, we continue to see band after band of heavy snow sweep the state. The latest round of heavier snow has rotated from northwest to southeast, bringing squalls and limited visibility. As of the writing of this blog, there is a decent amount of moisture on Doppler radar extending from New York to Washington. Two low pressure systems continue to drive this system with (one off shore and the other to our southwest). We do expect to see a tapering of the snow in the mid-afternoon hours, but the winds will pick up and much of the evening will be met with blowing snow. The temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing until early next week, so there won’t be much melting and re-freezing…that’s largely because nothing will melt. The end is in sight, but there still a way to go. Temps will stay in the upper 20s today and tomorrow with overnight lows from 10 to 15 degrees.

Our official snow totals  have pushed BWI Marshall to near 24 inches. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

 It now ranks as the 3^rd largest storm to hit Baltimore since record keeping.  This is truly an historic storm and winter season so far. ..and it ain’t over yet. We are expecting another storm system to approach the area by Tuesday evening into Wednesday.  Every flake that falls from now on will press the Baltimore area toward the all-time “snowiest seasons. We’ll keep you posted.

 For now, we welcome you pictures at wjzwebalert@cbs.com and we urge you to safe … and stay off the roads.     

 

9:30 am

Thundersnow!  If you think that you heard thunder or saw lightning with this storm, you probably did.   The same physics produce thunderstorms in the snow, but it just takes a lot more energy to get the full thunderstorm when it's so cold and temperatures are so low.  So this is a rare occurrence, and even more rare since there were numerous reports of it and for a prolonged period of time.  And just like a thunderstorm produces heavy rain underneath it, these storms produce heavy snow at the rate of 2-4" per hour underneath them.

Snowfall amounts continue to add up by the hour.  Thank you to all our viewers who have been emailing us their totals.  We are using those in combination with the National Weather Service totals from both the Baltimore/DC office and the Mt. Holly/Philly office (who cover most of the Eastern Shore and Cecil County).  Here are links to those snowfall total lists

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/display_snow_from_pns.php

Now, this storm is not finished yet.  There are two different low pressures driving this storm.  One made its way up the East Coast and is heading out to sea near Norfolk.  The other low is still hanging way off to the west, just spiraling through southern West Virginia currently.  It will take through the day for that low to pass by Maryland, so we are going to see snow at varying rates until it does.  That's why the warnings are in effect through 10 pm. 

The winds have also picked up.  As the second low passes by, it will drag in colder air.  Currently, this is a very wet and heavy snow.  When the colder air comes in, it will puff up the snow a bit - and the winds will start to blow and drift that snow.  But be careful with all of the snow out there whether you are starting to shovel or need to take it off your roof, because it is very heavy. 

We are busy on the tv side with our snow show right now, but will try to keep this blog updated.  The WJZ.com crew is also posting a lot of great information, too...so stay tuned.