David Bernard's Blog

Click on the picture to the left. What you are looking at is the latest GFS super ensemble computer model plot at 500mb (basically the jet stream).
It is the average 500mb plot centered on December 1st for the next 30 days.

It shows the potential for a huge trough along the East Coast. If this happens, it is going to be one cold and snowy December! Well not snowy at least for South Florida but could be cold!

The dates in the bottom right hand corner of the graphic are the analog years. In other words, the years that the computer model thinks are comparable to the potential pattern. 1963, 1969, 1985. Those were ugly!  2002 was darn cold as well.

We'll see!

p.s. I'll try and fix the image so it is larger. GIF/JPG issues tonight

Here is a gem of a story. I love it. No one was hurt or is in danger. So, a Russian ice breaking ship, of all things ,got stuck in thick Antarctic sea ice this week. It was carrying 100 tourists.

I mentioned this earlier this year, but Southern Hemisphere sea ice is actually increasing NOT decreasing. In fact, the graph below shows coverage is at its highest extent in over 30 years.  You never hear about this. All you hear about is the melting at the Arctic Circle (North Pole). Of course, this was well documented in the late 1940s and 50s and then Arctic Ice made a comeback in the 60s to early 80s.

All part of the natural cycle and the Earth staying in balance. We don't want a stable Earth. We need climate fluctuations and ice melt and ice growth. Just like we need hurricanes. It keeps our planet "sane".  Again, its humans going insane. LOL. Isn't that always the case with EVERYTHING!  Below is the article on the ship.

ANTARCTIC SEA ICE COVERAGE 1979-CURRENT


Associated Press
MOSCOW -- A Russian icebreaker carrying over 100 tourists, scientists and journalists on a cruise around Antarctica was struggling to free itself from sea ice but was not in any danger, a shipping company said Tuesday.

Rest of article

Beautiful start to the weekend with crisp 50s all across South Florida!
Here are the morning lows.





MIAMI  57
FORT LAUDERDALE  57
EXECUTIVE AIRPORT  56
POMPANO BEACH  54
WEST KENDALL  51
OPA-LOCKA  56
PEMBROKE PINES  55

Interesting article from my hometown newspaper. Eric Berger of the Houston Chronicle actually writes pretty good science articles for them. This one is interesting as it quotes well known hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel of MIT along with Phd candidate Ryan Maue at Florida State whose research I have quoted on this blog at times.

It basically is talking about the lack of global tropical activity and what this means about climate change. In other words, if we are still warming, then where are all the storms?? Sure, it was a down year in the Atlantic and you can point to El Nino. But El Nino should have the OPPOSITE effect in the West Pacific. In fact typhoon production in the West Pacific has been way down going on several years now.

Other points to consider in this article are storms like Hurricane Katrina that researchers pointed to at the time as evidence of global warming. When, in fact, Katrina was weakening as it moved onshore. While it was historically strong, other storms like Camille had been there as well back in 1969 and were actually more powerful at landfall.

Ike is not evidence of greater storms due to climate change either. Ike had a tremendous storm surge because of its size and the location of landfall. Not all storms produce the same storm surge. That's because coastlines differ in their vulnerability to surge. Ike would not have produced a surge ANYTHING close to Texas here in South Florida.

The government researcher at NCAR mentions Typhoon Morokat that hit the Philippines with 80 inches of rain over several days. BIG DEAL. We have seen that with tropical storms over and over again. Claudette in 1979 caused over 40 inches of rain in Alvin, Texas in just 24 hours. It's because the systems stalled!!! These storms probably produce rainfall like this over the oceans all the time but without measurements there who knows!

Anyway...here's the article.  :)

Nasty boating conditions through tonight but improving tomorrow.
Gale warnings are in effect this morning for  the Bay and Atlantic. Small Craft Advisories into tonight.

GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

TODAY...EAST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
THIS MORNING. SEAS 8 TO 10 FEET SUBSIDING TO AROUND 8 FEET.
INTRACOASTAL WATERS ROUGH IN EXPOSED AREAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS.
TONIGHT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SEAS 5 TO 7 FEET. INTRACOASTAL
WATERS ROUGH IN EXPOSED AREAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

Update: 11pm
Ida is moving inland near Mobile tonight. The worst of the rain and wind is moving inland as well.

Update: 6pm
Ida has held its own this afternoon and will make landfall as a strong tropical storm. I believe this is only the third November storm to make landfall in the past 50 years. I think the other two are Hurricane Kate 1985 and Tropical Storm Gordon in 1994. I'll check and post later.

Ida continues to weaken Monday morning as it approaches the coast. It will reach the Panhandle as a weakening tropical storm but with very heavy rains.

LATEST SATELLITE OF IDA

Updated Monday 11/9/09 9am

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3PM MONDAY AFTERNOON

SUSTAINED EAST WINDS OF AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO OR OVER 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES
FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF AROUND 30 MPH ARE EVEN POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR HIGHER OR
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG
CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
USE EXTRA CAUTION. MAKE SURE TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS AS THEY CAN
BE BLOWN AROUND BY WINDS THIS STRONG.

LATEST WIND SPEEDS

If you are reading this blog and you are from South Florida you are saying "what?!"  It sure wasn't cold here during October. In fact, we set many record highs for the month.

1) It was the warmest October on record for Miami.

2) Miami observed 14 days of temperatures reaching 90 degrees or higher,
    which tied the record for most number of 90-plus degree days set
    back in 1989. 

3) Of those 14 90 degree days, 12 of them were in a row and that was a record as well.

We were the exception in South Florida. A large area of high pressure maintained itself right over the state for most of the month. This blocked the strong cold fronts from making their way into the state.  We had one good front and that was on October 17th. Amazingly, Fort Lauderdale actually set a record low that weekend. It's not too often we see record highs and lows back to back almost in South Florida.

But for other parts of the country, cold records were being set left and right.

According to the NOAA database, this was the third coldest October in the U.S. going back to 1895.

Hopefully NOAA will make a big deal out of this in their monthly press release. However, I have not seen anything yet. :)
You can track their releases here.  NOAA NEWS ARCHIVE

The chart below shows all Octobers going back to 1895 and the average national temperature for the month.

November hurricanes are pretty rare. By this  time of the year, the westerlies are increasing in strength so storms that do form (almost always in the Western Caribbean) tend to move from southwest to northeast. During the heart of hurricane season most storms move east to west in the tropics before moving far enough north to recurve with the jet stream.

November hurricanes hitting the United States are even more rare. Since 1900, 4 hurricanes have hit the United States and all have been Category 1 and all hit Florida!

The last November hurricane was Hurricane Kate in 1985. At one point, Kate was a Category 3 in the Gulf of Mexico. It is the only major hurricane ever observed in the Gulf during the month of November. It weakend to a Category 1 when it made landfall in the Florida Panhandle.

Here are the other three hurricanes to hit Florida since 1900, courtesy of USA Today. The Yankee Hurricane is well remembered in South Florida because of its unusual approach from the North..hence the name "Yankee Hurricane".

• The "Yankee hurricane" of 1935 formed over the Atlantic Ocean and moved to the southwest to hit the Miami area with 75 mph winds on Nov. 4. It moved along the Keys and then north into the Gulf of Mexico where it looped back around toward the east, but died before hitting Florida again. To many people in Florida any visitor from the north is a "Yankee," thus the "Yankee hurricane."
  
  
  

            YANKEE HURRICANE TRACK

• 

       
Storm number 2 of 1925. Only two tropical storms formed in 1925 with the first coming ashore near Brownsville, Texas, as a tropical storm in September. On Nov. 30, 1925 the year's second tropical storm strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane shortly before coming ashore south of Tampa Bay, Fla. After weakening back into a tropical storm, it crossed Florida to strengthen into a hurricane, but weakened into a tropical storm before hitting the North Carolina Outer Banks on Dec. 2. It was blamed for about 50 deaths, mostly on ships at sea.

Storm number 14 of 1916. Unlike 1925, 1916 was a busy year with 14 tropical storms on the record and all but three of them becoming hurricanes. Storm 14 formed in the western Caribbean on Nov. 11, but remained a tropical storm until Nov. 15 when it was off the western tip of Cuba where it became a category 1 hurricane that moved to the northeast along the Florida Keys with 75 mph winds and then into the Bahamas where it died.

**SPECIAL NOTE
The November 1916 hurricane was re-classified as extratropical when it affected South Florida after the re-analysis project from 1851-1925 was recently completed by Chris Landsea and the Hurricane Research Division.